He’s won his last four starts, all Grade 1’s, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L – and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he’s normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill’s profile whatsoever and he’s a very worthy odds-on favourite. The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite – think Appreciate It or Douvan – but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to ‘get’ Facile Vega.
Energumene – Marsh Novices’ Chase – 2/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)
It does seem a race where all of the preceding trials have been run on different ground and/or under very different pace scenarios. There will be lots of to and fro in the six weeks from now until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway. A few positions on shorties at fancier prices, for all that the spectre of our picks winning but not by far enough looms, may help to wile the worst of these remaining Covid days. Put The Kettle On jumped poorly under Sean Flanagan when slammed by CPS and Notebook last time but can be expected to improve both for a return to Cheltenham and the presumed return of Aidan Coleman to the saddle. In that light, she’s of minor interest at 14/1 each way and also worth at least a second glance when the ‘without the favourite’ market emerges. But it is hard to see her turning tables with her last day vanquisher.
Relegate wins the Champion Bumper
In this case, 2nd of four beats two horses and loses to one horse, so has a PRB score of 67% (or 0.67) for beating two out of three of its rivals. Impact Value (IV) is a measure of how frequently something happens for x in relation to how frequently it happens for all. For instance, how often the going is good to soft on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival compared to how often the going is good to soft over all days of the Cheltenham Festival. Protektorat has been Pricewise’d in the last couple of days, that value vacuum cleaner meaning he’s a rum price for us Johnny Come Lately’s, but he’s not really one I’m yet persuaded by anyway. And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.
50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
Look at how the horse is built, how he walks, his presence and demeanour. Just when you think you have a race sorted, a horse you hadn’t even considered might surprise you. Sometimes the little horse who might not look much defeats the big horse.
Horse Race Betting Systems
FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock. The winner of that contest in 2022 went on to follow up in the Albert Bartlett, as The Nice Guy improved hugely for the rise in distance at Cheltenham. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Seabank Bistro repeats the feat this time around and is worth a small each-way wager. The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses. When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 122%.
Football Accumulator Tips: Friday night’s 36/1 Punt from the UK & Europe
They collectively won 32 of the 39 qualifying races, for a profit of 80 points at SP, and a tasty 165 points at BSP. Only five of the 102 horses sent off shorter Bolts Up Daily than 9/1 prevailed, for a 66 point loss at SP (60 points at BSP). Chuck out horses aged nine and above, and be unforgiving with those aged seven and eight.
The Secret Behind Bolts Up Daily: Changing the Horse Racing Game
I think an Each Way bet on Hiddenvalley Lake at 8/1 – 9/1 is the way to go here. A wide-open renewal of this stamina-sapping Grade 1 hurdle prize, where SEABANK BISTRO is taken to cause an upset at attractive odds. This race is often won at big odds, with favourites having an awful record in the event (the last favourite to win was At Fishers Cross in 2013). The selection is a typical Willie Mullins unexposed type, who scored a maiden hurdle at Naas in January.
Starting Price
- This is a deep race and there’s plenty with chances including the likes of Corbett Cross and Three Card Brag.
- A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap.
- Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.
- The best bet of Wednesday runs in the hardest race of the day.
- Likely some, but probably not a huge amount is my best guess.
- This mare won the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival over two miles, but has been beaten in all three starts since.
- Bit to find with Politologue on Tingle Creek form; unlikely winner.
- The caveat is that we’re looking for a horse that we hope will get an uncontested lead; that is, one which looks as though it is the lone pace angle.
- Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip.
We’ll have contributions from our resident tipster as well as the chief sports writer, Paul Hayward, racing correspondent, Marcus Armytage and our Centaur correspondent, Alan Tyers. Stays further than 2m and loves heavy ground so has to be a serious player. Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman. Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles. Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.
The Betfair selections we are trading above are UK time. Only filled trades or bets appear on JuiceStorm TV.
Cue Card’s form of last season would give him a great chance today. £/€10 min stake on Casino slots within 30 days of registration. Max bonus 200 Free Spins on selected games credited within 48 hours. Now, no betting system is perfect, and some may prove to be more hype than substance, but there are three that are worth taking an in-depth look at specifically.
Breeders’ Cup 2024: Three European raiders form a 68/1 treble on Friday
His progressive chase form over three miles plus is enough to put him in with a solid shout anyway, but it was his latest performance, when chasing home the smart Our Duke over 2½ miles that underlines his class. The trip would have been plenty sharp enough for Presenting Percy – he had won over 3m 5f two runs earlier – yet he traded blows with a horse that is third favourite for Friday’s Timico Gold Cup. As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.
Horse Racing Betting in 2023: Five Key Differentiators
Despite previous trends favouring shorter-priced horses, this year’s contest appears to be wide open. The absence of a standout bumper horse from Ireland contributes to the race’s unpredictability, reflected in bookmakers offering odds of 6/1 for the entire field at time of writing (Tuesday morning). He’s capable of getting placed, but too expensive to follow. Paul Nicholls’ Stay Away Fay won last year’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out.
Although GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has to prove himself over an extra two and a half furlongs, he has a touch of brilliance about him suggesting he can prevail in a Gold Cup. Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival success, and he relishes spring ground. Still only seven years of age, he is also versatile regarding tactics and there is an awful lot to like about his credentials. Hunters Yarn is a horse that jumps off the page in this race. The stable have won this twice in the last 3 years and tend to have a good horse in it.
Showcase Trophy Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Showcase Meeting)
Willie has more than just State Man; he also saddles last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, Vauban, and he’s an interesting contender. While Constitution Hill and State Man are likely to be on or close to the pace, Vauban has been ridden a lot more patiently and, as a result, has finished his races off well in respectable defeats to State Man. If State Man tries to force things against the favourite – and it’s unlikely the Closutton team will be riding for a place – then Vauban may be the one to hoover up any crumbs. The Goffer won a Grade A handicap chase at Leopardstown last time off a mark of 138. He’s got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour.
Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for the final Race 👇🏼
Despite owner Michael O’Leary’s efforts to quash the hype, SAMCRO arrives with a sizeable reputation and his racecourse performances say that he deserves it. He has won all three hurdles races easily, including a Grade One at Leopardstown, and there is a strong suspicion we have yet to see just how could he is. Vision Des Flos showed the benefit of a wind operation when turning a competitive Exeter Listed race into a procession and should ensure Samcro earns his prize. Black Op represents the team that won Tuesday’s first race and they will have a solid line to novice form. Next Destination finished third in last year’s Champion Bumper here and has built on that level of form over hurdles.
Durbanville Tips
- His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry.
- In the absence of a reliable option, I’ll take a chance on Heaven Help Us being trained for the day in what seem to be her favoured conditions.
- All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years.
- But, on the back of another 134-day lay-off, Will Buick’s partner sprang back to form in the Listed Fred Archer Stakes at Goodwood on the final Saturday of June.
- Two Tempting finished ahead of a few of these at Chester and is always underestimated in the betting.
- The versatility of PRESENTING PERCY is rare in a staying chaser and that quality suggests he is a cut above the average.
- Clicking on the trainer’s name reveals today’s runner(s), and clicking the little up arrow to the left hand side displays inline the relevant past performances – here we can see that one of the pair won and the other was third.
- The Williams team have excellent contacts in France and have a long history of recruiting nice hurdlers from across the channel.
So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse’s name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.
WORLDWIDE STAKES
- Once we’ve identified likely fast finishers in the field, we need to overlay the circumstances in which they recorded their fast finish on top of how we perceive today’s race will be run.
- Of stable form, it can be seen from the right hand part of the chart that the Henderson hordes have not been firing at their highest rate in recent months.
- If El Fab’s jumping holds up, I think he’ll win, and if it doesn’t I think Jonbon will win.
- Whilst he’s obviously progressive, he’s got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark.
- This is one of the oldest sports in the UK by far, and interest in it has stayed steady throughout the years.
- Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford.
Their promotional offers for horse racing are more than decent, frequent throughout the year, and all the more interesting around big race meets. Betfair and Paddy Power are jointly out in front here, with the best in-play features for race betting. The cash-out function at Betfair is one of the easiest to use of its kind, ideal for making quick decisions during the heat of the action. Similarly, Paddy Power has strong in-play betting for racing punters. There are so many places online that we can turn to when we want to place a bet, whether we choose to head to Ladbrokes horse racing or to any of the other sites that offer this type of wagering. Over the next few centuries, interest in horse racing continued to grow.
If that’s the unpromising news, her most recent effort – when a staying on third to Royal Kahala at Leopardstown – was definitely her season best and she comes here perhaps sitting on a big one, as they say. Vying for favouritism is the first of the Closutton triumvirate, Dysart Dynamo, a buzzy front-running type who is quick, very quick. Winner of all four starts to date – two bumpers, a maiden hurdle and a Grade 2 hurdle – it is worth noting that while never seeing a rival in the two hurdle starts he took a lead in both of his bumpers before strolling home unchallenged. It may be further worth noting that the first of those was a soft ground near two-and-a-half miler, so stamina is assured. It’s hard to know exactly what he beat in the G2 but second-placed Gringo d’Aubrelle had previously been a ten length third to Stage Star in the G1 Challow over further. A strike rate of close to 1 in 5 is excellent and female LTO winners have secured a profit in Grade 1 races of £66.94 (ROI +85.8%).
At the last five Festivals, they have collectively bagged 82 of the 140 races. Throw in Henry de Bromhead – whose team is bolstered by the high profile addition of the Cheveley Park bluebloods – and Dan Skelton and you have six handlers responsible for two-thirds of the Festival winners in the last five years. Between them, they’ll be long odds-on to take at least half of the 28 prizes on offer next week. That brace of novice G1’s, the second of which was at beyond three miles, advertised his prospective Gold Cup claims, something a facile match score over The Big Breakaway did little to rebuke.
Fifteen is also a neat number as we can easily compare 5–year periods (2008–2012; 2013–2017; 2018–2022) to see what, if anything has changed. MT – Coming round to Bravemansgame having not been a fan early season – he’s very hard to knock. A good half dozen possible pace angles here, headed perhaps by Mighty Mo Missouri.